Forex market analysis

Euro and Sterling — Get Ready for a Ride Ahead of 2 Rate Decisions

Well let’s look at each pair separately first on an hourly technical level:

gbpusd

gbpusd

GBP/USD has been in a downtrend on the hourly since last Friday, Jan 29th, until its low, Feb 1st at 1.5848.  If we draw a Fibonacci line from these two levels we see that the pair has slowly retraced all the way back up through the 100 hour moving average to the 61.8 % retracement around 1.6050, then almost to the 200 hour moving average and all the way back down hovering now between R1 and key support.  Look to resistance levels (R1 & 100 hour MA at 1.5975, R2 1.6000/10, R3& 200 hour MA around 1.6050/75 ) above as good reference points for  entries on the downtrend and a break of key support on the downside to next support level around 1.5731 which was the recent low on the daily.

 

Daily Market Review Feb 3rd, 2010

The U.S markets raced forward yesterday after a mixed start, as economic data and an oversold correction, encouraged investors back into stocks. Pending home sales was the driver of the session, hitting analyst’s expectations of 1%. This was following last month’s drop of -16.4% after surging for months, as buyers rushed to take advantage of an $8000 tax credit for first time buyers.
 

The NFP and Interest Rate effect


1

 

 

 

 

 

NFP effect two months ago

As can be seen in the chart above, the EUR/USD had been trading in an upward channel for months until the NFP was released on Dec the 4th (circled in blue), showing a remarkable recovery in the US economy with a surprising 11K jobs lost instead of the widely anticipated 119K job cut.

The initial reaction was a drop of over 200 pips on the day of the surprising announcement and a long lasting downward trend during most of December that reduced the exchange rate for the pair by more than 500 additional pips.

 

RBA Shocks Markets: Cash Rate Unchanged

aeThe Reserve Bank of Australia surprisingly left its cash rate benchmark unchanged at 3.75% at its monthly monetary policy meeting. The decision took markets by surprise as a broad consensus among investors’ expectations pointed to a 0.25% rate hike for the fourth time in a row to 4.00%. The RBA was the first central bank in the G20 to raise rates since the recession, tightening three consecutive times since October last year. According to its recent statement, the information about the impact of those rate hikes is still limited and therefore it is “appropriate to hold a steady setting of monetary policy for the time being”.
 
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